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[目的]了解江苏省昆山市卵巢癌发病率趋势,预测2015~2020年发病率。[方法]2006~2014年卵巢癌病例来源于昆山市肿瘤登记数据,用中国2000年第5次人口普查年龄结构计算年龄标化发病率(中标率)。使用年度变化百分比(annual change percentage,APC)评价发病率变化趋势;用时间趋势与自回归模型预测至2020年卵巢癌发病率。[结果]江苏省昆山市卵巢癌粗发病率从2006年的3.63/10万上升到2014年10.19/10万(APC=8.6%,95%CI:3.6%~13.6%);中标率从2006年的2.70/10万上升到2014年的7.19/10万(APC=7.1%,95%CI:1.7%~12.5%);年龄别发病率在30~60岁快速上升,60~64岁达到高峰。时间趋势与自回归模型预测结果显示2015~2020年卵巢癌预粗发病率分别为10.22/10万、10.76/10万、11.30/10万、11.84/10万、12.39/10万和12.93/10万。[结论 ]江苏省昆山市卵巢癌发病率明显上升,未来也将继续上升。
[Objective] To understand the incidence of ovarian cancer in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province, predict the incidence of 2015-2020. [Methods] The ovarian cancer cases from 2006 to 2014 were from Kunshan Tumor Registry. The age-standardized incidence was calculated by the age structure of the 5th China 2000 population census (the winning rate). The annual change percentage (APC) was used to evaluate the change trend of the incidence. The incidence of ovarian cancer was predicted by the time trend and autoregressive model to 2020. [Results] The crude incidence rate of ovarian cancer in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province increased from 3.63 / lakh in 2006 to 10.19 / lakh in 2014 (APC = 8.6%, 95% CI: 3.6% ~ 13.6%); (APC = 7.1%, 95% CI: 1.7% ~ 12.5%) from 2.70 / 100,000 to 2014. The age-specific prevalence rose rapidly from 30 to 60 years old and peaked from 60 to 64 years old. The results of time trend and autoregressive model predict that the pre-crude incidence rates of ovarian cancer from 2015 to 2020 are 10.22 / 100000, 10.76 / 100000, 11.30 / 100000, 11.84 / 100000, 12.39 / 100000 and 12.93 / 100000 . [Conclusion] The incidence of ovarian cancer in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province increased significantly, and will continue to rise in the future.