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本文检验了美、英、德三国在20世纪实行的货币政策与其股票市场兴衰之间的关联性。结果发现:当产出快速增长且通货膨胀率维持低位时,股票市场多为繁荣;当通货膨胀持续上升且货币政策日趋紧缩时,股票市场也日渐萧条。借助对于上述几国战后数据的隐性变量VAR分析,本文证实了通货膨胀因素对于股票市场存在着明显影响。因此,中央银行可以通过降低价格指数的非预期性波动来维持金融市场的稳定。
This article examines the correlation between the monetary policy practiced by the United States, Britain and Germany in the 20th century and the rise and fall of their stock markets. The result shows that the stock market is mostly prosperous when the output is growing rapidly and the inflation rate remains low. As the inflation continues to rise and the monetary policy is tightening day by day, the stock market is becoming increasingly depressed. With the help of VAR analysis of recessive variables in the post-war data of the above-mentioned countries, this paper confirms that inflation has a significant impact on the stock market. Therefore, the central bank can maintain financial market stability by reducing the unpredictable volatility of the price index.