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根据我们提出的断裂力学破裂模式，推导出了几个计算构造环境应力值τ０的公式（见文中公式（１）、（２）、（３）、（５））．根据这些公式，计算了中国大陆地区中小地震及美国南加州的中小地震的构造环境剪应力值．结果表明，τ０值的大小和分布与大震发生的地点有密切的关系，即剪应力水平较高的地区将容易发生大地震，而剪应力水平较低的地区通常只发生小地震．震级大小与ｌｇ（τ０）统计上呈线性相关．依据τ０值的空间分布，可以一定程度上确定地震危险区或潜在震源区；依据τ０值随时间的变化，可以粗略地估计大震发生的时间．根据τ０值在南加州的分布和随时间的变化，有３个地区应力值较高．其中，Ｇｏｌｄｆｉｅｌｄ地区是现今的地震危险区。
According to the fracture mechanics rupture mode proposed by us, several formulas for calculating the stress τ0 in the tectonic environment have been deduced (see formulas (1), (2), (3) and (5)). Based on these formulas, the tectonic environmental shear stress values of small-medium earthquakes in the Chinese mainland and small- and medium-sized earthquakes in Southern California are calculated. The results show that the magnitude and distribution of τ0 are closely related to the location of the major earthquakes. That is, large earthquakes will be prone to occur in areas with high shear stress, while small earthquakes usually occur in areas with low shear stress. The magnitude of magnitude is linearly related to lg (τ0). According to the spatial distribution of τ0 value, the seismic danger zone or potential source region can be determined to a certain extent. According to the change of τ0 value with time, the time of large earthquake can be roughly estimated. Three regions have higher stress values based on the distribution of τ0 values in Southern California and over time. Among them, the Goldfield area is today’s earthquake risk area.