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Egypt’s new constitution was passed in a controversial referendum held in two stages. The constitution is meant to bring stability to Egypt, but the country faces both deep political division and structural problems.
Constitution passed
On November 22, 2012, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi issued a shock decree granting him a slew of new powers, triggering widespread opposition protests. Egypt again descended into a serious political crisis that began with a series of large street protests in January 2011 that led to the ousting of former President Hosni Mubarak.
To ease the political turmoil and quicken the birth of a new constitution, Morsi decided to hold a constitutional referendum. The voting was conducted in two stages. The first 10 governorates, including Cairo and Alexandria, voted on December 15, with the rest voting on December 22.
The referendum stood a good chance of passage due to several key factors.
Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood are highly influential in Egypt. For decades, the Muslim Brotherhood, with a strong Islamic religious belief, has established a vast network in urban and rural areas. It runs numerous social and economic organizations across the country, including hospitals, schools, banks, businesses and media outlets. Moreover, the party controls many public organizations like charities, labor unions and volunteer groups. Their activities have had a big influence in many sectors in Egyptian society, building a solid social and economic foundation. Thus, the Muslim Brotherhood became the ruling party by winning a clear majority in a general election in early 2012, with Morsi elected the Egyptian president several months later. The Muslim Brotherhood used that same energy and support to win the referendum.
The opposition is too weak and fragmented to stop Morsi’s new constitution. Composed mainly of secular liberals, most opposition members come from the middle and upper classes, accounting for a minority in Egypt. In addition, Morsi is a democratically elected president. His push for a new constitution accorded with the law, and the referendum was the best means of representing the will of the people. Thus, the opposition National Salvation Front lacked the justification to defeat it. Both the National Salvation Front and Egypt’s Supreme Judicial Council, which initially vowed to boycott the referendum, changed their minds later. Coptic Christians, who make up about 10 percent of Egypt’s 85 million population, although dissatisfied with the constitution’s Islamic bent, also took part in the referendum. Egyptian people want a stable environment and a new charter that removes their concerns. They believed if the new constitution was passed, Egypt would restore peace and order at a time when they were most urgently needed. More than 90 percent of Egyptian people are Muslims. The new charter recognizes the status of Islam in Egyptian society while protecting people’s rights, which makes it popular with average Egyptians.
Some people may be concerned that Morsi will gain sweeping powers to control the country. However, the new constitution stipulates the president can be reelected only once, and has no right to dissolve the parliament. The president must fully respect legislative and judicial independence. In addition, all constitutional decrees issued before, including the recent declaration expanding the president’s powers, will be abolished when the new constitution becomes effective. All these efforts to restrict presidential powers are helpful to mitigate people’s suspicions and anxieties. On December 12, 2012, when the National Salvation Front announced it was abandoning resistance to the referendum, the Egyptian stock market index EGX30 went up 2.8 percent, showing Egyptian people’s longing for stability.
Quarrel continues
The constitutional referendum was an important test for whether Egypt’s political situation will stabilize in the near future. The new constitution offers definite laws for the Egyptian government, which will help stabilize internal politics and restore order. In winning the referendum, Morsi further solidified his reputation and presidency. But since many structural problems have yet to be resolved, Egypt still faces challenges in the long run.
Political disputes between religious forces and secular groups have emerged publicly and regularly. Seizing the opportunity of Egypt’s democratic transition, the Muslim Brotherhood has changed its role in Egyptian politics from a marginal power to a dominant one. But the huge administrative system has maintained most of its original officials from the Mubarak period. It is obvious that the new ruling party differs greatly from the old guard. They have argued fiercely on many key issues, including power distribution, the legitimacy of the parliament and the drafting of the constitution. The latest political crisis caused by Morsi’s constitutional declaration concentrated the firepower of long-disunited opposition together. Renowned Egyptian political figures established the National Salvation Front, which includes eight major political factions that stood against the referendum, on November 24, 2012. The controversy over the new constitution boiled down to a dispute between secular and religious sides as to which direction Egypt will go in the future, one that is governed by religious or by secular standards.
Moreover, Morsi has vowed to investigate some senior officials in Mubarak’s administration to bring justice to those who shed their blood in Cairo’s Tahrir Square protests. Confrontation between the ruling Muslim Brotherhood and the opposition will likely continue if any action is taken.
The country’s economic recovery is probably the biggest weakness for Morsi’s administration. Large protests broke out in Egypt in 2011 because of the country’s economic difficulties and Egyptian people’s poor living conditions. The former government implemented neo-liberalism, leading to a weak national industry. Egypt’s economy has long relied on the four pillars of tourism, the Suez Canal, oil and overseas remittance. If the country wants to realize economic prosperity, it has to find a new path of reindustrialization. However, it appears that the Muslim Brotherhood has no plans to change the past economic model and will continue the strategy of liberalization and privatization. In that case, Egypt’s economy is unlikely to see much progress.
Moreover, political chaos over the past two years has worsened its economic environment. By the end of 2012, Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves had shrunk to $15 billion from $36 billion in early 2011. According to a report from Egypt’s Ministry of Finance, in the fiscal year of 2012-13, the fiscal deficit of the country reached $22.5 billion, accounting for 10 percent of GDP.
Morsi has made frequent visits to foreign countries since taking office. Most of his state visits had the same purpose of seeking economic support. Nevertheless, Morsi has not reached his goal. The continued economic woe will disappoint the people, who may stand up again to protest the new government.
Morsi’s power centralization attempt also faces strong resistance. Around 40 percent of Egyptian people live below the poverty line. The polarization between the rich and the poor is getting increasingly serious. While expanding the people’s political participation, Egypt’s democratic transition has weakened its political system. Various forces have begun to get involved in politics, resulting in disorder.
In order to restore order and speed up political reconstruction, Morsi must obtain more powers to govern the country. But he has met with increasing resistance. For instance, although he spared no efforts to pass the new constitution, the process of drawing up the constitution proved bumpy. The Supreme Constitutional Court dismissed the committee charged with writing the constitution in April 2012. To prevent the constitution-making process from being interrupted again, Morsi issued a constitutional declaration on November 22, only to spark massive protests.
Egypt’s political transformation is still a work in progress. Various groups and forces have entered the political arena, causing repeated conflicts. Nevertheless, the country is not likely to fall into another “revolution.” n
Constitution passed
On November 22, 2012, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi issued a shock decree granting him a slew of new powers, triggering widespread opposition protests. Egypt again descended into a serious political crisis that began with a series of large street protests in January 2011 that led to the ousting of former President Hosni Mubarak.
To ease the political turmoil and quicken the birth of a new constitution, Morsi decided to hold a constitutional referendum. The voting was conducted in two stages. The first 10 governorates, including Cairo and Alexandria, voted on December 15, with the rest voting on December 22.
The referendum stood a good chance of passage due to several key factors.
Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood are highly influential in Egypt. For decades, the Muslim Brotherhood, with a strong Islamic religious belief, has established a vast network in urban and rural areas. It runs numerous social and economic organizations across the country, including hospitals, schools, banks, businesses and media outlets. Moreover, the party controls many public organizations like charities, labor unions and volunteer groups. Their activities have had a big influence in many sectors in Egyptian society, building a solid social and economic foundation. Thus, the Muslim Brotherhood became the ruling party by winning a clear majority in a general election in early 2012, with Morsi elected the Egyptian president several months later. The Muslim Brotherhood used that same energy and support to win the referendum.
The opposition is too weak and fragmented to stop Morsi’s new constitution. Composed mainly of secular liberals, most opposition members come from the middle and upper classes, accounting for a minority in Egypt. In addition, Morsi is a democratically elected president. His push for a new constitution accorded with the law, and the referendum was the best means of representing the will of the people. Thus, the opposition National Salvation Front lacked the justification to defeat it. Both the National Salvation Front and Egypt’s Supreme Judicial Council, which initially vowed to boycott the referendum, changed their minds later. Coptic Christians, who make up about 10 percent of Egypt’s 85 million population, although dissatisfied with the constitution’s Islamic bent, also took part in the referendum. Egyptian people want a stable environment and a new charter that removes their concerns. They believed if the new constitution was passed, Egypt would restore peace and order at a time when they were most urgently needed. More than 90 percent of Egyptian people are Muslims. The new charter recognizes the status of Islam in Egyptian society while protecting people’s rights, which makes it popular with average Egyptians.
Some people may be concerned that Morsi will gain sweeping powers to control the country. However, the new constitution stipulates the president can be reelected only once, and has no right to dissolve the parliament. The president must fully respect legislative and judicial independence. In addition, all constitutional decrees issued before, including the recent declaration expanding the president’s powers, will be abolished when the new constitution becomes effective. All these efforts to restrict presidential powers are helpful to mitigate people’s suspicions and anxieties. On December 12, 2012, when the National Salvation Front announced it was abandoning resistance to the referendum, the Egyptian stock market index EGX30 went up 2.8 percent, showing Egyptian people’s longing for stability.
Quarrel continues
The constitutional referendum was an important test for whether Egypt’s political situation will stabilize in the near future. The new constitution offers definite laws for the Egyptian government, which will help stabilize internal politics and restore order. In winning the referendum, Morsi further solidified his reputation and presidency. But since many structural problems have yet to be resolved, Egypt still faces challenges in the long run.
Political disputes between religious forces and secular groups have emerged publicly and regularly. Seizing the opportunity of Egypt’s democratic transition, the Muslim Brotherhood has changed its role in Egyptian politics from a marginal power to a dominant one. But the huge administrative system has maintained most of its original officials from the Mubarak period. It is obvious that the new ruling party differs greatly from the old guard. They have argued fiercely on many key issues, including power distribution, the legitimacy of the parliament and the drafting of the constitution. The latest political crisis caused by Morsi’s constitutional declaration concentrated the firepower of long-disunited opposition together. Renowned Egyptian political figures established the National Salvation Front, which includes eight major political factions that stood against the referendum, on November 24, 2012. The controversy over the new constitution boiled down to a dispute between secular and religious sides as to which direction Egypt will go in the future, one that is governed by religious or by secular standards.
Moreover, Morsi has vowed to investigate some senior officials in Mubarak’s administration to bring justice to those who shed their blood in Cairo’s Tahrir Square protests. Confrontation between the ruling Muslim Brotherhood and the opposition will likely continue if any action is taken.
The country’s economic recovery is probably the biggest weakness for Morsi’s administration. Large protests broke out in Egypt in 2011 because of the country’s economic difficulties and Egyptian people’s poor living conditions. The former government implemented neo-liberalism, leading to a weak national industry. Egypt’s economy has long relied on the four pillars of tourism, the Suez Canal, oil and overseas remittance. If the country wants to realize economic prosperity, it has to find a new path of reindustrialization. However, it appears that the Muslim Brotherhood has no plans to change the past economic model and will continue the strategy of liberalization and privatization. In that case, Egypt’s economy is unlikely to see much progress.
Moreover, political chaos over the past two years has worsened its economic environment. By the end of 2012, Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves had shrunk to $15 billion from $36 billion in early 2011. According to a report from Egypt’s Ministry of Finance, in the fiscal year of 2012-13, the fiscal deficit of the country reached $22.5 billion, accounting for 10 percent of GDP.
Morsi has made frequent visits to foreign countries since taking office. Most of his state visits had the same purpose of seeking economic support. Nevertheless, Morsi has not reached his goal. The continued economic woe will disappoint the people, who may stand up again to protest the new government.
Morsi’s power centralization attempt also faces strong resistance. Around 40 percent of Egyptian people live below the poverty line. The polarization between the rich and the poor is getting increasingly serious. While expanding the people’s political participation, Egypt’s democratic transition has weakened its political system. Various forces have begun to get involved in politics, resulting in disorder.
In order to restore order and speed up political reconstruction, Morsi must obtain more powers to govern the country. But he has met with increasing resistance. For instance, although he spared no efforts to pass the new constitution, the process of drawing up the constitution proved bumpy. The Supreme Constitutional Court dismissed the committee charged with writing the constitution in April 2012. To prevent the constitution-making process from being interrupted again, Morsi issued a constitutional declaration on November 22, only to spark massive protests.
Egypt’s political transformation is still a work in progress. Various groups and forces have entered the political arena, causing repeated conflicts. Nevertheless, the country is not likely to fall into another “revolution.” n