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2008年的中国资本市场已正式拉开序幕,值此辞旧迎新之际让我们一起来畅想一下。股指期货推出的影响股指期货年内推出几无悬念,预计多次博弈将趋激烈。根据海外经验,处于牛市中的美国股指期货推出之前,标普500指数升幅达4.35%,1982年2月上旬股指期货推出后,指数连续下跌9.79%,但美国股市长期上涨趋势没变;日本1986年9月指数期货推出,一个多月内日经225指数跌15.38%,但长线仍涨;香港同样如此。照此推断,中国股指期货推出后短期可能会下跌,但长期牛市格局不变。
China’s capital market in 2008 has officially kicked off, so let us Imagine the occasion of the welcome of old and new. The introduction of stock index futures stock index futures introduced several suspense, is expected to be more intense game. According to overseas experience, the S & P 500 index rose by 4.35% before the launch of the US stock index futures in a bull market. After the introduction of stock index futures in early February 1982, the index dropped by 9.79% in a row. However, the long-term upward trend of the U.S. stock market did not change. Japan 1986 Index futures launched in September, the Nikkei 225 index fell 15.38% in more than a month, but the long-term rise; the same is true in Hong Kong. According to this inference, China’s stock index futures may be short-term decline, but the long-term bull market pattern unchanged.