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目的 应用灰色系统理论对武汉市大肠癌死亡趋势 (2 0 0 3～ 2 0 1 1年 )进行预测 ,并探讨其可信性。方法 用灰色理论对大肠癌死亡率指标建立预测模型 :用GM(1 ,1 )建立原始模型 ;用等维递补灰数动态预测来动态地预测未来结果 ;引进环境干涉因子修正预测结果。结果 用该方法对武汉市大肠癌死亡率进行中长期预测 ,结果显示 ,此方法预测精度较高。且现实中有使大肠癌死亡趋势恶化的环境因子存在。结论 本研究为大肠癌的预测提供了新的方法 ,近期预测结果已得到证实 ,未来预测将进一步验证。
Objective To predict the death trend of colorectal cancer in Wuhan (from 2003 to 2011) by using the gray system theory and to investigate its credibility. Methods Gray model was used to predict the mortality of colorectal cancer. The original model was established with GM (1, 1); the dynamic prediction of future results was carried out by using the same dimension of gray prediction; and the environmental interference factor was used to correct the prediction result. Results This method was used to predict the long-term mortality of colorectal cancer in Wuhan City. The results showed that the accuracy of this method was high. In reality, there are environmental factors that worsen the death trend of colorectal cancer. Conclusion This study provides a new method for the prediction of colorectal cancer. The results of recent predictions have been confirmed and future predictions will be further validated.