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传统决策理论忽视了对人的策略性行为和策略决策的考察。本文通过对草原管理的智能体模拟分析,发展了策略人和策略决策新模型,并重点研究了策略人的四种典型策略决策:策略性投票、掩盖性、交易性和学习性策略决策。智能体模拟分析发现,在特定条件下,策略人的策略决策深刻影响个体的具体行动,并进而影响个体的行动结果(例,草原的可持续发展)。进而探讨了通过政策或制度安排来利用策略人的策略决策谋取预期政策或制度收益的可能性和其现实响应,并与策略人的四种典型策略决策相对应,依次讨论了策略约束性、保护性、诱导性以及学习性四种政策或制度安排。
Traditional decision theory ignores the investigation of the strategic behavior and strategic decision. In this paper, a new model of strategic people and strategy decision-making is developed through the simulation of grassroots agent. Four typical strategy decisions of strategic people are emphatically studied: strategic voting, cover-up, transactional and learning strategies. In the simulation of agent, it is found that under certain conditions, strategic decisions of strategic people have a profound impact on individuals’ specific actions, which in turn affect the individual’s actions (for example, the sustainable development of grasslands). Furthermore, it explores the possibility and practical response of utilizing strategic people’s policy decision to obtain expected policy or institutional benefit through policy or institutional arrangement, and corresponding with four typical strategic decision of strategic people, discussing the relationship between policy restraint and protection Sexual, inductive and learning four kinds of policies or institutional arrangements.