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针对山西省生产力布局与水资源禀赋逆向配置的典型问题,研究山西省用水结构和产业结构变动关系以及用水结构的合理性问题。首先进行变量平稳性检验、协整检验和G ranger因果关系检验,研究用水结构与三次产业结构之间的变动关系,结果表明:第一和第三产业用水量与产值之间存在长期均衡关系,且用水量是产值的G ranger原因,用水量对第三产业产值的影响远大于第一产业,第二产业用水量与产值之间不存在长期均衡关系。进一步分析了山西省第二产业重工业化的产业特点及高耗水的用水特点,并对山西省用水结构及效率与国外同等发展水平的国家进行了比较研究。研究结果可为山西省经济转型发展的产业政策制定和水资源配置的协调管理提供决策支持。
Aiming at the typical problems of reverse allocation of productivity and water resource endowment in Shanxi Province, this paper studies the relationship between water consumption structure and industrial structure in Shanxi Province and the rationality of water consumption structure. First of all, we conducted variable stability test, cointegration test and Granger causality test to study the relationship between water consumption structure and tertiary industry structure. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between water consumption and output value in the primary and tertiary industries, And the water consumption is the reason of G ranger, the effect of water consumption on the output value of the tertiary industry is far greater than that of the primary industry. There is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the water consumption and the output value of the secondary industry. Further analyzed the industrial characteristics of heavy industry and the characteristics of high water consumption of secondary industry in Shanxi Province, and compared the water consumption structure and efficiency of Shanxi Province with those of other countries with the same level of development. The results can provide decision-making support for the formulation of industrial policies and the coordinated management of water resources allocation in the economic restructuring and development of Shanxi Province.