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为了正确制定采种、调种计划,就得预先了解、测定种子的结实量。现我国一般采用的种子结实量预测方法有:1.标准地法;2.平均标准木法;3.落地种子计算法;4.标准枝法;5.球果切开法;6.半面树冠球果估测法等。这6种方法不论工作量大小如何,都有一个共同的缺点:不能计算种子结实量的误差限及无可靠性保证。为了能更精确可靠地预估种子的结实量,本文根据作者近几年来在抽样调查工作中的体会,分析,提出用抽样调查法对林木种子的结实量进行预测。一、方法此方法以数理统计学的抽样理论为指导,采用简单随机抽样和系统抽样进行调查与计算。种子结实量的精度,可靠性均以90％计算。样地形状用方形,面积0.01公顷。
In order to properly develop seed collection, planting plan, you have to know in advance to measure the seed of the seed. Now commonly used in our country seed forecasting methods are: 1. Standard method; 2. Average standard wood method; 3. Ground seed calculation method; 4. Standard branch method; 5. Cone-cut method; 6. Half-crown Cones estimation method. All six methods have a common disadvantage, regardless of the size of the workload: the limits of error that can not be calculated for seed mass and unreliability guarantees. In order to predict the seed yield more accurately and reliably, according to the author’s experience in the sampling survey in recent years, this paper proposes to use the sample survey method to predict the seed yield of forest seed. First, the method This method is based on mathematical theory of sampling theory as a guide, using simple random sampling and system sampling for investigation and calculation. Precision seed seed yield, reliability are calculated at 90%. Sample shape with a square, an area of 0.01 hectares.