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为了解决广深运输通道内长途汽车、常规铁路、高速铁路和城际铁路4种运输方式的客流分担率测算问题,采用行为调查方法调查了4种运输方式特性对旅客出行方式选择的影响。提出采用两层巢式Logit(NL)模型构建各种运输方式的客流分担率预测模型,选取经济性、舒适性、安全性、快捷性和方便性5个变量作为效用函数的构成变量。运用二阶段估计法将NL模型分解为1个二项Logit(BL)和1个多项Logit(MNL)模型后对各种运输方式的客流分担率进行求解。广深运输通道案例数据测算表明:2020年公路和铁路的客流分担率分别为16%和84%,其中铁路运输方式中的常规铁路、高速铁路和城际铁路的客流分担率分别为2%,57%和41%。
In order to solve the problem of passenger flow sharing rate calculation of four kinds of modes of transport in Guangzhou-Shenzhen transport corridor, conventional transport, high-speed rail and inter-city rail transport, the influence of four transport modes on passenger travel selection was investigated by behavior survey. This paper proposes a two-layer Nested Logit (NL) model to construct a passenger flow sharing rate forecasting model for various transport modes. Five variables of economy, comfort, safety, convenience and convenience are selected as the constituent variables of the utility function. By using the two-stage estimation method, the NL model is decomposed into one binomial Logit (BL) and one multinomial Logit (MNL) model to solve the passenger flow sharing rate of various transportation modes. The calculation of CASS data shows that the passenger flow distribution rates of highways and railways by 2020 are respectively 16% and 84%, of which the passenger flow rates of conventional railways, high-speed railways and inter-city railways are 2% 57% and 41%.