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提出了考虑土体参数空间变异性边坡可靠度分析的Kriging方法.采用拉丁超立方抽样方法产生样本点,通过Karhunen-Loève(KL)级数展开方法离散土体抗剪强度参数相关对数随机场.基于有限元滑面应力法计算边坡安全系数,利用Kriging模型的优良特性拟合边坡可靠度分析的功能函数,在此基础上采用蒙特卡洛方法计算边坡失效概率,并编写了计算程序.最后研究了该方法在2个边坡可靠度分析中的应用.结果表明:与其他方法相比,该方法在考虑土体参数空间变异性的边坡可靠度分析中不仅计算效率高,而且精度也较好,为解决复杂边坡可靠度问题提供了一种新的有效的分析工具.忽略土体参数空间变异性并不一定会导致对边坡可靠度的保守估计,同时应准确地估计抗剪强度间的互相关性.
A Kriging method is proposed to analyze the reliability of the slope considering the spatial variability of soil parameters.The sample points are generated by using the Latin hypercube sampling method and the logarithm of the shear strength parameters of the soil with discrete Karhunen-Loeve (KL) Airport.According to the finite element sliding surface stress method, the slope safety factor is calculated, the function of slope reliability analysis is fitted by the excellent characteristics of Kriging model, and Monte-Carlo method is used to calculate the failure probability of slope, Finally, the application of this method in the reliability analysis of two slopes is studied.The results show that compared with other methods, this method not only has high computational efficiency in the analysis of slope reliability which considers the spatial variability of soil parameters, , And the accuracy is also good.It provides a new and effective analytical tool for solving the problem of complex slope reliability.It can not be ignored that the spatial variability of soil parameters does not necessarily lead to a conservative estimate of slope reliability and should be accurate To estimate the cross-correlation between shear strength.