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本文采用多案例分析方法提取重大传染病疫情事件的属性,从“事件类型、关键属性、从属属性、环境属性和危害评估属性”对其进行结构化描述。在此基础上,分析重大传染病疫情发展演化事件链中关联事件的相关属性,利用基于广义随机Petri网的建模分析方法,根据广义随机Petri网与马尔科夫链的同构关系,得到重大传染病传播演化的广义Petri网模型和等价马尔科夫链模型。最后,通过马尔科夫链及相关数学方法分析其中的均衡状态及其变动规律,并对系统评估和改进提出建议,可为有效监控和应对疫情发展提供有力决策支持。
In this paper, multi-case analysis is used to extract the attributes of major infectious disease outbreaks and structured description of them from “event type, key attribute, subordinate attribute, environmental attribute and hazard assessment attribute”. On this basis, we analyze the related attributes of related events in the chain of evolution and outbreaks of major infectious disease outbreaks. By using the method of modeling and analysis based on generalized stochastic Petri nets, according to the isomorphism relation between generalized stochastic Petri nets and Markov chains, Generalized Petri Net Model and Equivalent Markov Chain Model for the Evolution of Infectious Diseases. Finally, the analysis of the equilibrium status and its variation through Markov chain and related mathematical methods, as well as the suggestions for system assessment and improvement, can provide powerful decision support for effectively monitoring and responding to the epidemic development.