一、引 言 日本气象厅使用在业务上的台风移动预报模式是Ookochi于1978年研制的。这个模式有两个缺点,即移动性的多嵌套网格系统和规定的加热场。这样,多嵌套网格系统很难与积云参数化相配置,并且难以一次模拟较多的台风,规定的加热场不能真实地描述对流加热情 况。因此,我们研制了一个含有积云参数化的简单的系统模式。为了检验这个模式的性能,使之作为一个业务预报模式,我们进行了实时资料的试验,由新模式所作出的预报将详细地与以前使用的多嵌套网格系统所作出的预报进行比较。 I. INTRODUCTION The typhoon movement forecast mode used by Japan Meteorological Agency in business was developed by Ookochi in 1978. This model has two drawbacks, namely, the mobile multi-nested grid system and the specified heating field. In this way, the multi-nested grid system is difficult to configure with cumulus parameterization, and it is difficult to simulate more typhoons at one time. The specified heating field can not truly describe the convection heating situation. Therefore, we developed a simple system model with cumulus parameterization. In order to test the performance of this model as a business forecasting model, we conducted experiments on real-time data and the forecasts made by the new model will be compared in detail with the forecasts made by the previously used multi-nested grid system.