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基于构建的中国春玉米种植分布-气候关系模型,对1961—2010年春玉米潜在种植分布年代际变化进行了分析。结果表明:春玉米潜在可种植面积呈增加趋势;气候最适宜种植面积波动式增加,近10年达5.3×105km2;适宜种植面积明显扩大,近50年增加约8.2×105km2,且呈东扩趋势;潜在种植北界呈波动式北移,最大北抬达1.4个纬度。表明,气候变化有利于中国扩大春玉米种植,但一些地区可能受水分条件的限制。
Based on the constructed Chinese spring corn crop distribution-climate relationship model, the interdecadal changes of potential maize planting distribution from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed. The results showed that the potential planting area of spring maize showed an increasing trend. The most suitable planting area of the climate fluctuated with an increase of 5.3 × 105km2 in the past 10 years. The suitable planting area expanded obviously, increasing by 8.2 × 105km2 in the last 50 years and showing a trend of eastward expansion The northern boundary of potential planting moved northward with a maximum of 1.4 latitudes in the north. That climate change is conducive to China to expand spring maize cultivation, but some areas may be subject to moisture conditions.