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运用生理时间限制条件检验及棉花各预测项实测值与预测理论值间不同程度的误差频次、偏离值及相关系数的测定法等,对沿海棉区棉花生育模拟模型进行有效性检验。结果表明:该模型基本上反映了棉花生育动态,具育一定的预测准确性。对主要生育指标的预测基本吻合。对果枝果实数量动态预测,选用允许误差标准Q或SE,则可达68.3％或81.3％的置信概率保证。要更精确地模拟棉花生育动态,尚需对模型进行修正完善。
The validity test of cotton fertility simulation model in coastal cotton area was carried out by using physiological time constraints test and different degrees of error frequency between measured and predicted theoretical values of cotton forecasting, deviation and correlation coefficient. The results show that this model basically reflects the growth dynamics of cotton and has some predictive accuracy. The main fertility indicators of the basic agreement. On the dynamic prediction of the fruit number, using the allowable error standard Q or SE, the confidence probability of 68.3% or 81.3% can be guaranteed. To more accurately simulate the dynamics of cotton birth, the model still need to be amended to improve.