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对于二季度7.6%的GDP增长,我以“最坏的预期微笑看待”来综合概括,即:一方面看到中国经济形势的严峻性,另一方面又不能表现得过度悲观。首先,二季度真实的GDP很可能比7.6%更糟糕。发电量连续三个月一直徘徊在0附近,4、5、6月PMI逐月恶化,经济微观层面表现不好,企业利润下降,中小企业特别是民营企业经营困难是我们真正需要关注的。其次,我们也不能表现得过度悲观。7.6%的增速不仅符合经济下行期绝大部分人的心理预期,而且还可以称得上成绩不错。我们没有必要像2008年那样再来一轮“大干快
For the 7.6% GDP growth in the second quarter, I will summarize the ”worst-case expectant smile", namely: on the one hand, we can see the seriousness of China’s economic situation, on the other hand, it can not be overly pessimistic. First, real GDP in the second quarter is likely to be worse than 7.6%. Power generation has been hovering around 0 for three months in a row. PMI has been deteriorating month by month in April, May and June. Poor performance on the micro and micro economic levels, declining profitability of enterprises, and difficulties in the management of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially private-owned enterprises, are the real concerns we need to pay attention to. Second, we can not be overly pessimistic. The growth rate of 7.6% is not only in line with the psychological expectations of the vast majority of people in the economic downturn, but also can be rated as good grades. It is not necessary for us to get another round of talks like in 2008