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近年来国际石油油价出现过四次巨幅波动,第一次由2007年1季度均值57.51美元/每桶上涨至2008年2季度均值118.3美元/每桶;第二次由2008年3季度均值118.29美元/每桶下跌至2009年1季度均值43.09美元/每桶;第三次由2009年1季度均值43.09美元/每桶上涨至2012年1季度均值118.49美元/每桶;第四次由2014年2季度均值109.62美元/每桶下跌至2016年1季度均值33.89美元/每桶。国内学界较多分析国际油价变动对中国经济的影响,认为国内石油产量不足,只能被动接受国际油价的变动。但是换角度逆向研究较少:我们可以利用国内巨大的市场需求寻求国际油价定价权或是从国际油价变动中获益。本文将分析中国经济对国际油价的影响,证明中国也可以参与国际石油价格的制定。
In recent years, there have been four huge fluctuations in the international oil and gas prices. For the first time, the average price in the first quarter of 2007 increased from US $ 57.51 / barrel in the first quarter of 2007 to an average of US $ 118.3 / barrel in the second quarter of 2008; the second average was 118.29 in the third quarter of 2008 US dollar / barrel fell to an average of 43.09 US dollars / barrel in the first quarter of 2009; the third from the first quarter of 2009 an average of 43.09 US dollars / barrel up to the first quarter of 2012 an average of 118.49 US dollars / barrel; the fourth from 2014 2Q09 average of $ 109.62 / barrel fell to $ 33.89 / barrel in 1Q16. The domestic academic circles analyzed more the impact of the international oil price changes on the Chinese economy and thought that the domestic oil output was insufficient and could only passively accept changes in the international oil prices. However, there are few studies on reversing the angle: we can use the huge domestic market demand to seek the pricing power of international oil prices or benefit from the changes in international oil prices. This article will analyze the impact of China’s economy on international oil prices and prove that China can also participate in the formulation of international oil prices.