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伴随人口红利的逐步消失,劳动力成本的上升将成为中长期趋势,这种变化将对中国物价的形成以及走势产生很大影响。本文通过构建开放新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线,对影响通胀的各种可能因素进行系统规范的实证研究,结论认为货币扩张、通胀预期对我国通胀有着正向的显著影响,劳动力成本上升已经成为推动我国物价上涨的重要原因。解决中国的通胀问题除了继续加强货币政策调控之外,还需要其他政策的相互配合,多管齐下才能达到抑制通货膨胀的政策目标。
With the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, rising labor costs will become the mid- and long-term trend. Such changes will have a significant impact on the formation and trend of China's price. By constructing an open new Keynesian Phillips curve, this paper conducts a systematic and empirical empirical study of various possible factors that affect inflation. The conclusion is that monetary expansion and inflation expectations have a positive and significant impact on inflation in China. The rising labor cost has become the key factor driving China's price An important reason for the rise. To solve the inflation problem in China, apart from continuing to strengthen the control over monetary policy, we need the cooperation of other policies to achieve the multi-pronged policy goal of curbing inflation.