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目的探索安徽省2010~2015年麻疹疫情的时空分布规律,寻找麻疹流行的热点区域。方法收集安徽省2010~2015年麻疹监测数据,建立地理信息(Geographic Information Systems,GIS)数据库。使用Geo Da 1.4.6和Sa TScan 9.1地理信息系统软件分别进行空间自相关和时空扫描统计分析。结果 2010~2015年安徽省麻疹累计报告8 099例,年均发病率2.24/10万。全局空间自相关分析显示2010~2015年安徽省麻疹疫情的Moran’s I指数在0.0937~0.6089之间,除2012年以外其余各年呈现显著的空间聚集模式。局部空间自相关分析显示高-高聚集区分布在31个县。时空扫描分析显示存在3个时空聚集性区域,分别为2013年2~5月的蚌埠、淮南,2015年2~5月马鞍山、合肥、芜湖和2015年1~7月淮北、阜阳、宿州、亳州。结论安徽省2010~2015年麻疹发病存在空间聚集。时空分析方法的应用为麻疹疫情分析提供新的思路,提高了疾病的监测和预警能力。
Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution of measles epidemics in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2015 and find out the hot spots in the epidemic of measles. Methods Measles surveillance data from 2010 to 2015 in Anhui Province were collected and a database of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) was established. Geo Da 1.4.6 and Sa TScan 9.1 GIS software were used for statistical analysis of spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal scanning, respectively. Results A total of 899 cases of measles were reported from 2010 to 2015 in Anhui Province, with an average annual incidence of 2.24 / 100 000. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran’s I index of measles epidemic in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2015 ranged from 0.0937 to 0.6089, showing significant spatial aggregation patterns in all the rest years except 2012. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that high-high concentration areas were distributed in 31 counties. Spatial and temporal scanning analysis revealed that there are three spatial-temporal aggregation regions, namely Bengbu and Huainan from February to May 2013, Ma’anshan from February to May 2015, Hefei and Wuhu in 2015 and Huaibei, Fuyang, Suzhou and Bozhou in January-July 2015 . Conclusion The incidence of measles in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2015 exists spatial agglomeration. The application of spatio-temporal analysis method provides new ideas for the analysis of measles epidemic situation and improves the ability of disease surveillance and early warning.