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本文在对经济学中流行的收敛观念进行评述的基础上认为,它导致了我们提出发展问题的深度有限,以及一些政策上的偏差。然后开始讨论偏离收敛观念中决定论的两种理论。首先是一种基于多重均衡的观念——给定同样的基本情况,可能出现几个显著不同的结果。第二种是主要由历史条件决定的均衡。即给定一个特定的历史经验,导致的结果就完全确定了,历史经验的影响在观察到的结果中持续存在。在两种情形下,都没有收敛或无历史记载的假定。作者证明,这个方法既在我们提问的方式上,也在政策方面给予我们不同的洞察力。
Based on a review of the prevailing concepts of convergence in economics, this paper argues that it leads us to the limited depth of the issue of development and some policy discrepancies. Then began to discuss two theories that depart from the determinism of convergence. The first is a concept based on multiple equilibria - given the same basic situation, several potentially different results may arise. The second is an equilibrium that is largely determined by historical conditions. Given a specific historical experience, the result is completely determined, the impact of historical experience persists in the observed results. In either case, there is no convergence or no historical assumption. The author proves that this method gives us different insight both in the way we ask questions and in policy.