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为了研究呼图壁河径流过程对气候变化的响应,文中对石门水文站和呼图壁县气象局1978~2011年日径流、降水、温度数据进行了统计分析,采用Mann-Kendall法对年天然径流进行了突变趋势检验,并将变点前后的径流量与流域气温、降水进行相关性分析,得出:(1)年径流量在1987年发生突变,变点前呈下降趋势,变点后呈上升趋势,其中1998~2004年上升显著。(2)变点后径流量年际变幅增大、枯水年变少;径流量年内变化不均匀、变幅大。(3)温度、降水与径流量均呈正相关,相关系数均在0.58以上,且温度对径流变化的贡献率更大,这说明高山冰雪融水是呼图壁河的主要补给方式,随着高山区冰雪储量的减少,呼图壁河的生态安全将会受到很大威胁。
In order to study the response of Hutubi River runoff to climate change, the daily runoff, precipitation and temperature data of Shimen Hydrological Station and Hutubi County Meteorological Bureau from 1978 to 2011 were analyzed statistically. The Mann-Kendall The trend of runoff was tested by mutation trend. The correlation between the runoff before and after change point and the temperature and precipitation in the basin was analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Annual runoff changed suddenly in 1987, It showed an upward trend, with a significant increase from 1998 to 2004. (2) The annual variation of runoff after the change point increased, and the dry year decreased. The runoff changed unevenly during the year with large amplitude. (3) There was a positive correlation between temperature, precipitation and runoff, the correlation coefficients were both above 0.58, and the contribution of temperature to runoff change was greater, indicating that the ice and snow melt in the mountains is the main supply way for Hutubihe River. The reduction of ice and snow reserves in the area will pose a great threat to the ecological security of the Hutubi River.