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本文介绍一种建立林产品国际贸易模型的方法,它曾用于1980年至1985年世界新闻纸贸易预测,其结果是令人满意的。模型原理建立本模型的基本条件是假设林产品国际市场是自由竞争市场,但由于各种因素影响,市场不可能处于完全自由状态,所以必须使用一些约束条件。其中包括关税、贸易限额和市场结构惯性以及进出口的运输成本。在这些条件约束下,市场趋于一般均衡,这时在一定的到岸价格点,任一国家的进口需求与世界其他国家对该国的出口供给相符,同理对于任一出口国,其离岸价格使得该国的出口供给与世界其他国家对该国的进口
This article describes a method for establishing an international trade model for forest products, which was used for the prediction of world newsprint trade from 1980 to 1985. The results are satisfactory. Model principle The basic condition for establishing this model is to assume that the international market of forest products is a free competition market. However, because of various factors, the market cannot be in a completely free state. Therefore, some constraints must be used. These include tariffs, trade quotas, inertia in market structures, and transportation costs for imports and exports. Under these constraints, the market tends to be generally balanced. At a certain CIF price point, the import demand of any country is consistent with the export supply of other countries to the country. Similarly for any export country, The shore price makes the country’s export supply and the rest of the world’s imports into the country