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笔者运用中国1978年至2009年政府卫生支出与GDP等相关数据,对政府卫生支出的性质、最优规模及实现进行了实证分析。研究结论表明:政府卫生支出是生产性支出;目前中国政府卫生支出规模不足,其最优规模应占GDP的11.9%;政府卫生支出的边际产出随其规模负向变动;当年人均GDP与上年政府卫生支出水平对当年政府卫生支出水平具有显著影响。笔者在最优取向增长模型中预测了2011年至2020年各年政府卫生支出规模,希望为动态实现政府卫生支出最优规模提供合理途径。
Using the data of government health expenditure and GDP from 1978 to 2009 in China, the author makes an empirical analysis of the nature, optimal scale and realization of government health expenditure. The conclusion of the study shows that government expenditure on health is a productive expenditure. At present, the government expenditure on health in China is insufficient, and its optimal scale should account for 11.9% of GDP. The marginal output of government health expenditure changes negatively with its scale. The level of annual government expenditure on health has a significant impact on the level of government expenditure on health. In the optimal orientation growth model, the author predicts the scale of government health expenditure in each year from 2011 to 2020, hoping to provide a reasonable way for the dynamic realization of the optimal scale of government health expenditure.