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水土保持项目运行管理效益评价能够有效地反映由于后期维护管理不当造成的项目综合效益降低等问题。改进的模糊可信度DEA法不仅能够客观地、从最有利于被评价决策单元的角度进行多输入、多输出指标的比较,更能将输入输出中存在的不确定性风险合理量化,从而有利于决策者做出更为科学合理的管理决策。选取黄河齐家川水土保持示范区为研究对象,从后运行管理评价体系的目标层、准则层、措施层入手,运用可信度模糊DEA法对水保项目竣工使用后的运行管理进行阶段性评估,得出不同可信模糊度(α?level)下的DEA评价值,通过分析不同风险水平下的评价值意义,进而得出该项目存在的不足与原因,为后期进一步调整与完善项目的运行管理打下基础。
The evaluation of benefit of operation and management of soil and water conservation project can effectively reflect the problems such as the decrease of comprehensive benefit of project caused by the improper maintenance of later stage. The improved fuzzy reliability DEA method not only can objectively compare the multiple input and multiple output indicators from the perspective of the most favorable decision-making unit, but also can reasonably quantify the uncertainty risks existing in the input and output, Which will help decision makers to make more scientific and rational management decisions. This paper chooses the demonstration area of QiJiaChuan soil and water conservation as the research object, starts from the target layer, criterion layer and measure layer of the evaluation system of post-operation management, evaluates the operation and management of the water conservation project after its completion by using the fuzzy reliability DEA method, Through the analysis of the significance of the evaluation values under different levels of risk, we can draw the shortcomings and causes of the project, so as to further adjust and perfect the project operation and management lay the foundation.