论文部分内容阅读
俄罗斯科学院西伯利亚分院克拉斯诺亚尔斯克科学中心特殊技术设计局Sibgatulin于2013年5月7日11时55分,将天然电磁脉冲异常信息及分析意见通报给文章第一作者曾佐勋,指出在武汉的东、西两个方向上,具有发生MS6级左右地震的可能性。2013年5月7日22时20分,山东平原县职业中专宋松将其与宋科夫根据震兆日晕结合“七式、六形还原测震法”做出的地震预测意见通报了曾佐勋。意见中指出,2013年5月7—20日左右(甚至会在7天内),在新疆、青海、与西藏交界附近,将发生MS5.5~6.2的地震。在Sibgatulin和宋松等人的预测基础上,利用卫星热红外排气点观测法,曾佐勋于2013年5月8日0时54分,向宋松、王杰、潘黎黎发出预测意见。预测10日内有可能在西藏的排气点(31.5°N,89.0°E)发生MS6.0级左右地震,并于5月8日8时34分,向3人补充了另一排气点(31°N,86°E)的观测情况。2013年5月15日18:54:30,西藏那曲尼玛县(31.6°N,86.5°E)发生MS5.2级中强震,震源深度为10km。此次地震的发震时间落入宋松和曾佐勋的预测窗口;震中落入曾佐勋根据第二个排气点给出的预测范围;震级基本上落入Sibgatulin、宋松、宋科夫以及曾佐勋的预测范围。尼玛地震临震预测成功的意义在于这是一次两国三方合作的范例,也进一步验证了“地震预测需要多方法的综合分析”的认识。对该地区地壳结构剖面和活动断裂研究表明,此次地震的发震断层为来多—措迈北北西向右行走滑正断层;地震能量的积聚和存储与中地壳高导低速层关系密切;西藏地区断层活动受南北向挤压、东西向拉伸的现今构造应力场控制。
Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Krasnoyarsk Science Center Special Design Bureau Sibgatulin at 11:55 on May 7, 2013, the natural electromagnetic pulse abnormalities and analysis of the views of the first author of the report Zuo Zuoxun pointed out that in Wuhan East and West directions, with the possibility of MS6 magnitude earthquakes occurred. At 22:20 on May 7, 2013, Song Song, a vocational secondary school in Pingyuan County of Shandong Province, combined with Song Kefu’s prediction of earthquake prediction based on the combination of the earthquake-induced halo and the “seven-type and six-shape reduction of seismic measurements” Notified Zuo Zuoxun. According to the opinion, from May 7 to May 20, 2013 (even within 7 days), an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 to 6.2 will occur near the junction of Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet. On the basis of the prediction made by Sibgatulin and Song Song et al. And based on the satellite thermal infrared discharge point observation method, Zeng Zuoxun made a prediction to Song Song, Wang Jie and Pan Li Li at 0:54 on May 8, 2013. It is predicted that within 10 days it is possible to have an MS6.0 magnitude earthquake near the exhaust point (31.5 ° N, 89.0 ° E) in Tibet and to another 3 people at 8:34 on May 8 31 ° N, 86 ° E). On May 15, 2013 at 18:54:30, the MS5.2 moderate-strong earthquakes occurred in Nagqu County, Tibet (31.6 ° N, 86.5 ° E) with a focal depth of 10 km. The epicenter of the earthquake fell into the prediction window of Song Songhe and Zuo Zuoxun; the epicenter fell into the forecast range of Zeng Zuoxun given by the second vent point; the magnitude basically fell into the ranks of Sibgatulin, Song Song, Song Kov, Prediction range. The significance of the success of the Nima earthquake prediction is that it is an example of a trilateral cooperation between the two countries and further confirms the recognition that “earthquake prediction requires comprehensive analysis of multiple methods”. The study of the crustal structure and active faults in this area shows that the seismogenic fault of this earthquake is the Naduo-Momai north-north-west-right-lateral strike-slip fault; the accumulation and storage of seismic energy is closely related to the low-velocity crust of the crust; The fault activity in Tibet is controlled by the current tectonic stress field that is squeezed north-south and stretched east-west.