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近期,国内玉米市场行情全面回升格局再度 显现,供求关系的变化是价格上涨的关键所在。 1.生产形势不容乐观 据有关部门预测,2003 年我国玉米产量为1.14亿吨,比上年减少6％。预 计今年东北产区玉米产量基本与上年持平。华北 及黄淮地区,产量减少8％左右。产量的下降将对 市场价格起到推动作用,而华北玉米减产,则意味 着从东北购入玉米的时间将会提前,然而,东北地 区的运力在短时间内又难以缓解,因此导致了目 前部分地区的供需失衡,价格大幅上涨。预计2004 年我国玉米播种面积将比上年调减2.4％。其中东 北产区由于大豆价格涨幅较大,农户倾向于种植 大豆;华北黄淮产区玉米面积也调减。
Recently, the pattern of a full rebound in the domestic corn market has once again emerged. The change in the supply-demand relationship is the key to price increases. 1. Production situation is not optimistic According to the forecast of relevant departments, China’s corn output in 2003 was 114 million tons, a decrease of 6% over the previous year. The output of maize in Northeast China is expected to be basically the same as that of the previous year. North China and Huanghuai region, output decreased by about 8%. The decline in output will play a role in promoting market prices. The reduction in output of maize in North China means that the acquisition of maize from the northeast will take time ahead of schedule. However, capacity in the northeast region will be elusive in a short period of time, resulting in the current portion The imbalance between supply and demand in the region, the price rose sharply. It is estimated that the sown area of maize in China will be reduced by 2.4% over the previous year in 2004. Among them, due to the large price increase of soybean in the northeast producing areas, farmers tended to grow soybeans; and the corn area in North China’s Huang-Huai-Huai producing areas was also reduced.