以历史上黄河下游的决溢频率为泥沙灾害的代用指标；研究了黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的宏观特征．研 究表明，气候因素对黄河下游决溢频率有深远的影响．隋唐以前，天然植被尚未遭到显著破坏，当湿润指标 增大时，有利于植被的生长，故黄河下游决溢频率减小．１０世纪以后，二者的关系与此相反，当湿润指标增 大时，决溢频率也增大，反之亦然．每世纪大旱年颁次与每世纪决溢频次之间呈明显正相关，说明目前受到 各方面广泛关注的黄河下游“小水大灾”现象，在历史上已经存在．干旱时期中，河槽萎缩，一旦大水来 临，很容易发生决溢．以华山松树木年轮指数为气温的代用指标，研究了气温变化与决溢频率变化的关系， 结果表明，在５０ａ的尺度上，当气温降低时，决溢频率增大，反之亦然．人类活动是影响黄河下游泥沙灾害 的重要因素． In the history, the frequency of the primeval-overflow in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is a proxy for sediment disasters. The macro-characteristics of historical sediment disasters in the lower Yellow River have been studied. The research shows that climatic factors have far-reaching impact on the absolute frequency of the Yellow River. Before the Sui and Tang dynasties, the natural vegetation had not been significantly damaged. When the wetting index increased, it was conducive to the growth of vegetation. After the 10th century, the relationship between the two is opposite. When the wetness index increases, the frequency of overflow increases, and vice versa. There is a clear positive correlation between the number of floods in each century and the frequency of resolving crimes per century, which shows that the “water disaster” in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, which is widely concerned by all quarters, has existed in history. Drought period, the river trough shrink, once the flood, it is easy to happen absolutely overflow. Taking Huashan pine ring index as a proxy index, the relationship between temperature change and absolute frequency was studied. The results show that when the temperature decreases, the frequency of absolute overflow increases and vice versa. Human activity is an important factor affecting sediment disasters in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.