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目的 :以乙类大型医用设备中的电子计算机X射线断层扫描技术(CT)为例,比较研究各种配置预测方法,对2015年全国CT的数量进行合理的预测。方法 :运用国际水平参考法、需求法、指数平滑法和滞后模型法进行预测。结果 :运用这4种方法,预测2015年全国的CT数量分别为10 564台、10 250台、12 566台和15 310台。结论 :4种研究方法从不同的角度对CT的数量做出预测,但预测也有其局限性,在实际应用中要注意宏观的控制和微观的调整相结合。
OBJECTIVE: To take computer tomography (CT) in a large medical device type B as an example to compare various configuration prediction methods to make a reasonable prediction of the number of CT in 2015 in China. Methods: Using international reference method, demand method, exponential smoothing method and lag model method to predict. Results: Using these four methods, the number of CTs in China in 2015 is predicted to be 10,564, 10,250, 12,566 and 15,310, respectively. CONCLUSION: The four research methods predict the number of CTs from different perspectives, but the prediction also has its limitations. In practice, we should pay attention to the combination of macro-control and micro-adjustment.