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一般说来,能源消费与GDP的增长呈正相关,但1997—1999年期间我国能源消费总量递减,同期我国GDP的增长却保持较高的水平。笔者从国际能源价格下跌、我国各行业能源利用效率的比较、三次产业的比重变化等方面进行分析,揭开了我国1997—1999年能源消费与GDP增长负相关之迷。得出的结论是:单位GDP的能耗变化是产业结构变化的“晴雨表”,大力发展第三产业是我国能源与经济可持续发展的有效途径。
Generally speaking, energy consumption is positively correlated with the growth of GDP. However, the total energy consumption of China decreased gradually during 1997-1999. At the same time, the growth of China's GDP remained at a relatively high level. The author analyzes the factors such as the drop of international energy prices, the comparison of energy efficiency of various industries in our country, and the change of the proportion of the three industries. It reveals the negative correlation between the energy consumption and GDP growth in China during 1997-1999. The conclusion is: energy consumption per unit of GDP is a “barometer” of industrial structure changes, and vigorously develop the tertiary industry is an effective way for China's energy and economic sustainable development.