近期通胀下行态势基本确立,增长继续放缓。受欧债危机的影响,明年的外部需求不容乐观,内需方面受房地产的拖累,固定资产投资增长下降是大概率事件。市场关心的一个关键问题是本轮增长放缓的深度和持续时间,它是一个短周期的现象,还是增长长期趋势下降的开始?与此相关,宏观经济政策在近期微调的基础上,将如何在保增长和防止通胀反弹之间取得平衡?本文回顾改革开放以来,尤其是20世纪90年代中期市场经济体制确立以来,中国经济 Recent downward trend in inflation basically established growth continued to slow down. Affected by the debt crisis in Europe, the external demand of next year is not optimistic. The domestic demand is dragged down by real estate. The declining growth of investment in fixed assets is a big probability event. One of the key issues of concern to the market is the depth and duration of this round of slowdown in growth. Is it a short-term phenomenon or is it the beginning of a long-term decline in growth? Relevant to this, how will macroeconomic policies be based on the recent fine-tuning? The balance between maintaining growth and preventing inflation from rebounding This article reviews the reform and opening up, especially since the establishment of a market economy in the mid-1990s, the Chinese economy