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本文以1996年—2006年间我国用电量和GDP的数据为基础,运用协整与误差修正分析方法对我国电力消费与经济增长的关系进行了探讨。实证研究结果表明,尽管在短期内,我国电力消费与GDP之间存在波动关系,但是从长期来看,它们之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,并且存在从我国电力消费到经济增长的单向因果关系。通过建立误差修正模型得出误差修正项的系数为负,符合反向修正机制。当电力消费量短期偏离均衡状态时,误差修正项将电力消费向长期均衡状态收敛。
Based on China’s electricity consumption and GDP data from 1996 to 2006, this paper discusses the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in China using cointegration and error correction analysis. The empirical results show that although there is a fluctuating relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in China in the short term, in the long run, there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between them and there is a one-way trend from electricity consumption to economic growth in our country Causal relationship. By establishing the error correction model, the coefficient of the error correction term is negative, in line with the reverse correction mechanism. When the power consumption deviates from the equilibrium state for a short time, the error correction term converges the power consumption to the long-term equilibrium state.