本文依据误差理论，系统地分析了水平煤层半无限开采时概率积分法、威布尔分布法和样条概率积分法的参数误差对下沉预计结果精度的影响，弄清了预计结果精度的分布规律，评述了它们的优缺点，并指出了改进措施。本文的研究结果对开采沉陷观测站设计、开采沉陷参数及计算模型的识别具有指导意义。 Based on the error theory, the paper systematically analyzes the influence of the parameter error of probabilistic integration method, Weibull distribution method and spline probability integral method on the prediction accuracy of subsidence in the semi-infinite mining of horizontal coal seam and clarifies the distribution rule of the accuracy of prediction results , Reviewed their advantages and disadvantages, and pointed out the improvement measures. The results of this paper are instructive for the design of mining subsidence observatory, the identification of mining subsidence parameters and the calculation model.