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在分析了地质灾害对长输天然气管道危害的基础上,借鉴地质灾害风险评价方法,将地震灾害的风险要素归纳为成灾背景、致灾体活动、受灾体特征、破坏损失和防治工程5个方面。从多角度、多因素出发,对影响管道安全并可能导致管道失效的各项因素进行了较为全面的分析,构建了较为完善的管道失效后果评价指标体系,并针对管道震害的主要形式细化部分指标。在震害率分析的基础上,确定了埋地管道震害破坏等级划分和对应失效概率的范围,实现了基于风险矩阵方法的地震地区长输天然气管道失效风险等级评价。该方法能够对区域内长输天然气管道的震害风险做出概括性的评估。
Based on the analysis of the hazards of geological disasters to long-distance natural gas pipelines and using the methods of risk assessment of geological disasters for reference, the risk factors of earthquake disasters are summed up as disaster background, disaster-affected body characteristics, damage characteristics, damage and damage prevention and control engineering aspect. From a multi-angle and multi-factor perspective, the factors that affect the safety of the pipeline and may lead to the failure of the pipeline are analyzed in a comprehensive way. A relatively complete evaluation index system of the pipeline failure consequence is constructed, and the main forms of pipeline damage are refined Some indicators Based on the analysis of earthquake damage rate, the scope of damage grade and the corresponding failure probability of buried pipeline are determined, and the evaluation of failure risk level of long distance natural gas pipeline in earthquake area based on risk matrix method is realized. This method can make a general assessment of the risk of seismic damage to long-distance natural gas pipelines in the region.