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本文运用结构突变理论,在检验台湾GDP序列的平稳性后,建立台湾GDP序列的拟合模型,实证检验支持台湾GDP序列在1974、1981、2001年产生结构突变,且潜在GDP函数发生了变化。通过分离GDP序列的趋势成分和周期成分,运用周期成分对台湾经济周期波动进行分析。研究发现,台湾经济周期波动主要受世界经济景气和台湾经济发展策略的影响。发生结构突变后台湾经济增长趋势发生变化,这与台湾经济的发展阶段和相应采取的经济发展策略密切相关。论文最后对未来台湾经济增长趋势做出预测。
By using the theory of structural catastrophe, after testing the stability of Taiwan’s GDP series, a fitting model of Taiwan’s GDP sequence is established. The empirical test supports the structural mutation of Taiwan’s GDP sequence in 1974, 1981 and 2001, and the potential GDP function has changed. By separating the trend component and the period component of the GDP sequence, we use the period component to analyze the fluctuation of the economic cycle in Taiwan. The study found that the volatility of Taiwan’s economic cycle is mainly affected by the world economic boom and Taiwan’s economic development strategy. The trend of Taiwan’s economic growth after the structural mutation has changed is closely related to the stage of Taiwan’s economic development and the corresponding economic development strategy adopted. Finally, the thesis forecasts the trend of economic growth in Taiwan in the future.