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环境保护和制造业结构高级化是我国“新常态”发展模式的应有之义。基于2001-2014年省级动态面板数据,运用系统GMM方法实证分析环境规制对制造业产业结构升级的影响及其区域异质性。结果显示:全国层面上,严厉的正式环境规制与较强的公众环保意识均有利于制造业产业结构高级化;进一步发现自主创新水平的系数不显著,而自主创新与环境规制交互项系数显著为正,说明二者的交互作用才能显著促进制造业产业结构升级。区域分组层面上,环境规制对制造业产业结构升级的倒逼作用呈现明显的省际差异,在区域创新能力强的地区具有正向促进作用,而在区域创新能力较弱的省份,环境规制反而抑制制造业产业结构升级。最后,从建立差异化环境规制长效机制及其如何与创新驱动政策有效协同等方面提出政策建议。
Environmental protection and the upgrading of the manufacturing structure are the proper meanings of our “new normal” development model. Based on provincial dynamic panel data from 2001 to 2014, the system GMM method is used to empirically analyze the impact of environmental regulation on the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure and its regional heterogeneity. The results show that: at the national level, severe formal environmental regulation and strong public awareness of environmental protection are conducive to the high-level industrial structure of manufacturing industry; further found that the coefficient of independent innovation level is not significant, while the coefficient of interaction between independent innovation and environmental regulation significantly Positive, indicating that the interaction between the two can significantly promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure. At the level of regional grouping, environmental regulation has obvious inter-provincial disparity on the back-up effect of upgrading industrial structure of manufacturing industry, which plays a positive role in promoting regional innovation capability. In the provinces with weak regional innovation ability, environmental regulation instead Inhibit the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure. Finally, policy recommendations are put forward from establishing a long-term mechanism of differentiated environmental regulation and how to effectively coordinate with innovation-driven policies.