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为了分析气象要素对山核桃产量的影响,以辉县市山核桃产区2008—2010年气象数据和实际山核桃产量数据,运用数学建模和数理统计方法分析山核桃产量和气温、降雨量及降水时间之间的关系,建立回归模型。结果表明,山核桃产量与花芽分化期日均温度呈显著正相关性,相关系数0.95;与开花授粉期降雨量、降水时间为负相关,且较为显著,相关度分别为-0.81、-0.76。极端天气对山核桃花芽分化、开花期以及产量有较大的影响。
In order to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on the yield of pecan, the data of hickory yield and temperature, precipitation and precipitation of pecan were analyzed by mathematical modeling and mathematical statistics with the meteorological data of 2008-2010 and the actual pecan yield data of the pecan production area of Huixian City Precipitation time between the establishment of regression model. The results showed that there was a significant positive correlation between pecan yield and daily average temperature during flower bud differentiation, and the correlation coefficient was 0.95. It was negatively correlated with rainfall and precipitation time in flowering and pollination periods, and the correlation coefficients were -0.81 and -0.76 respectively. Extreme weather has a great impact on pecan flower bud differentiation, flowering and yield.