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目的:分析成都地区1992年时非肥胖中年居民脉压(PP)、脉压指数(PPI)对该人群15年后(2007年)肥胖发生的预测价值。方法:本研究纳入1992年时年龄处于45～60岁且BMI正常者1017人,依据PP(PP≤60mmHg及PP>60mmHg)及PP(I PPI≤0.450及PPI>0.450)分为PP/PPI正常组及增高组,分析两组人群在15年后(2007年)BMI分布特征及肥胖的患病情况。结果:①1992年PP/PPI增高人群2007年时BMI皆高于PP/PPI正常人群,t检验示BMI组间差异有统计学意义。2007年肥胖患病率亦呈类似BMI的特点,亦为PP/PPI增高组高于PP/PPI正常组,经x2检验,肥胖患病率的组间差异有统计学意义。②根据该队列人群1992年的PP增高与否计算2007年的肥胖患病率的相对危险度(RR)为4.109,P值为0.000,95%可信区间为2.874～8.847;1992年PPI与2007年肥胖患病的RR为4.998,P值为0.000,95%可信区间为2.876～8.687。③使用logistic回归模型分析1992年基线PP/PPI对2007年肥胖患病的影响,在调整了SBP、WC、BMI、HR、TG后,PP、PPI的相对危险度仍为1.040及1.044。其各自相应95%CI分别为1.017～1.065、1.025～1.063。结论:脉压、脉压指数的异常与肥胖的发生关系密切,脉压、脉压指数可以预测肥胖的发生。
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the predictive value of pulse pressure (PP) and pulse pressure index (PPI) in the non-obese middle-aged population of Chengdu in 1992 on the incidence of obesity in this population after 15 years (2007). METHODS: This study enrolled 1017 patients aged 45-60 years with normal BMI in 1992 and classified them into normal PP / PPI based on PP (PP≤60mmHg and PP> 60mmHg) and PP (I PPI≤0.450 and PPI> 0.450) Group and increase group, analysis of the two groups of people in 15 years (2007) BMI distribution characteristics and prevalence of obesity. Results: ① In 1992, when the PP / PPI increased, the BMI in 2007 was higher than that in the PP / PPI normal population. The t test showed that there was significant difference between the BMI groups. The prevalence of obesity in 2007 was also similar to that of BMI. It was also higher in the PP / PPI group than in the PP / PPI group. There was significant difference between the two groups in the prevalence of obesity by x2 test. ② The relative risk (RR) of obesity prevalence in 2007 was 4.109 according to the increase of PP in the cohort of people in this cohort, the P value was 0.000, the 95% confidence interval was 2. 874-8. 847; the PPI and 2007 The annual prevalence of obesity was 4.998 with a P value of 0.000 and a 95% confidence interval of 2.876-8.687. ③ The logistic regression model was used to analyze the effect of baseline PP / PPI in 1992 on the prevalence of obesity in 2007. After adjustment for SBP, WC, BMI, HR and TG, the relative risk of PP and PPI remained at 1.040 and 1.044, respectively. Their corresponding 95% CIs were 1.017 ~ 1.065 and 1.025 ~ 1.063, respectively. Conclusion: Abnormal pulse pressure and pulse pressure index are closely related to the occurrence of obesity. Pulse pressure and pulse pressure index can predict the occurrence of obesity.