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退耕还林工程是在新的历史时期开展的一项复杂的系统工程。文章以全国退耕还林工程区的100个样本县为研究对象,研究分析了1998~2007年样本县三大产业发展状况,并运用灰色系统模型进行预测分析。结果表明:1998~2007年,样本县第一产业产值所占比例是逐渐减少的,10年减少了11.06%。第二产业和第三产业产值所占比例是逐渐增加的,10年增加了9.65%和1.41%。预测结果还表明:第一产业产值是逐渐降低的,降低幅度为27.05%;第二产业产值是逐渐增加的,增加幅度为32.10%;第三产业总体上是逐渐降低的,降低幅度为2.59%。
The Project of Returning Land for Farming to Forestry is a Complex Systematic Project in the New Historical Period. This paper takes 100 sample counties in the project area of returning farmland to forests as the research object, studies the development of the three major industries in sample counties from 1998 to 2007, and uses the gray system model to carry on the forecast analysis. The results show that from 1998 to 2007, the proportion of the output value of the primary industry in the sample counties decreased gradually, with a decrease of 11.06% in 10 years. The proportion of the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries is gradually increasing, increasing by 9.65% and 1.41% in 10 years. The forecast results also show that the output value of the primary industry is gradually decreasing with a reduction of 27.05%; the output value of the secondary industry is gradually increasing with an increase of 32.10%; the tertiary industry as a whole is gradually decreasing with a decrease of 2.59% .