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针对抽水试验确定水文地质参数存在不确定性的问题,从区间不确定性角度出发,基于非概率集合理论,推导出了单井承压水Dupuit求参公式的单变量和多变量区间解析表达式,即15个区间型单井承压水Dupuit求参公式,实现了从确定型求参公式到区间型求参公式的转变。通过对比蒙特卡洛法得到的实际区间上下限和推导出的公式计算的上下限,给出了这15个区间型求参公式计算结果相对误差的绝对值控制在10%以内时,相应变量的允许变化率,即各种情况下,允许变化率的最大值为1,最小值为0.1。实例应用结果表明,推导出的区间型求参公式可方便可靠地计算出渗透系数的区间响应,为地下水计算的不确定性研究提供了一种新途径。
According to the uncertainties of hydrogeological parameters determined by pumping tests, univariate and multivariable interval analytical expressions of Dupuit equation for single well confined pressure water were deduced from non-probabilistic set theory. , That is, the formula of single-well pressure water Dupuit in 15 intervals was taken as the formula to realize the transformation from the determinate type parameter formula to the interval type parameter formula. By comparing the upper and lower limits of the actual range obtained by the Monte-Carlo method and the upper and lower limits calculated by the formula, the relative error of the calculated results of the 15 interval type parameters is controlled within 10% Permissible rate of change, that is, under various circumstances, the maximum rate of change allowed 1, the minimum value of 0.1. The results of practical application show that the derived interval type parameter formula can calculate the interval response of permeability coefficient easily and reliably, which provides a new way to study the uncertainty of groundwater calculation.