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多数宏观经济理论模型只片面地分析了利率变化对企业行为的影响:或忽略了成本传导机制,或没有涉及企业进出市场的行为。本文构建了一个包含成本传导机制和企业进出市场行为的动态随机一般均衡模型,并以中国经济为样本,参照相关文献对模型参数进行了校准,更全面地分析了货币政策冲击和利率市场化对企业行为的影响,发现了现有理论模型不具备的一些特征,从而有助于更好地理解利率冲击所产生的效应。理论和模拟分析显示:利率通过三种渠道对通货膨胀率产生影响,分别是需求面集约边际、供给面集约边际和广义边际;货币政策冲击会同时从需求面和供给面影响企业进入市场的行为,忽略成本传导机制会低估货币政策冲击对实体经济的影响;假定利率市场化会加剧银行业竞争从而使得利差收窄,负利差冲击则会通过成本传导机制,促使企业扩大产出并吸引更多的市场参与者,进而影响价格、工资、劳动和消费。
Most models of macroeconomic theory only analyze the impact of the change of interest rate on the behavior of the enterprise one-sidedly: neglect the mechanism of cost transmission or do not involve the entry and exit of the enterprise. In this paper, we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes the cost-conduction mechanism and the market-entry and exit behavior of enterprises. Taking the Chinese economy as a sample, the model parameters are calibrated according to the relevant literature. The impact of the monetary policy and the marketization of interest rates The impact of business behavior, the discovery of the existing theoretical model does not have some of the features that help to better understand the effects of interest rate shocks. Theoretical and simulation analysis shows that interest rates affect the inflation rate through three channels: the intensive demand side, the intensive and marginal supply sides, and the impact of monetary policy from the demand side and the supply side on the entry of firms into the market , Ignore the cost of transmission mechanism will underestimate the impact of monetary policy impact on the real economy; assume that the interest rate liberalization will aggravate the banking competition resulting in narrowing spreads, negative interest-rate shocks will be through cost-conduction mechanism to encourage enterprises to expand output and attract More market participants, which in turn affect prices, wages, labor and consumption.