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论文从公交分担率的宏观影响因素(社会经济发展、交通基础设施、土地利用、交通政策)及微观影响因素(出行者特性、出行特性、交通方式特性)入手,通过分析研究非集计模型的理论,对关键影响因素进行量化处理,利用南京市现状居民出行调查数据和Trans CAD软件构建了多项Logit(MNL)模型,并对模型计算出的参数结果进行分析,求出样本中各居民所选择常规公交、地铁、出租车这些公共交通的出行方式概率,并与实际公交分担率进行对比,根据绝对误差来评价了模型精度。最后结合交通需求管理的原理以及模型变量提出了提高公交分担率的相关策略。
Papers from the macro-factors (socio-economic development, transport infrastructure, land use, transport policy) and micro-factors (characteristics of travelers, travel characteristics, traffic characteristics) Theory, the key influencing factors are quantified and processed, and a number of Logit (MNL) models are constructed based on the current resident travel survey data of Nanjing and Trans CAD software. The results of the model are analyzed and the samples of each resident The probability of travel mode of public transport, subway and taxi is selected and compared with the actual public transport sharing rate. The accuracy of model is evaluated based on absolute error. In the end, the related strategies to improve the share of public transportation are put forward based on the principle of traffic demand management and the model variables.