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首先介绍了边坡失稳概率等级判定准则,总结并分析了概率等级的常用判定方法以及它们的优缺点。其次,结合具体分析实例,针对目前常用的概率等级判定方法所存在的不足,将屈服接近度应用到边坡失稳概率等级评价中,并将分析结果与安全系数法和蒙特卡洛法所得结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:与安全系数法相比,基于屈服接近度的概率等级判定法能为概率等级的判定提供更为准确的依据,同时也可以为制定具体的边坡失稳控制措施提供依据,而与蒙特卡洛分析法相比,它具有耗时短、效率高的特点。本文研究为类似工程的分析提供了新的角度,具有一定的参考价值。
First of all, the criteria for judging the probability of slope instability are introduced. The common judgments of probability level and their advantages and disadvantages are summarized and analyzed. Secondly, combined with the concrete examples, aiming at the shortcomings of the commonly used methods of probability grade determination, the yield proximity is applied to the evaluation of the probability of slope failure. The results are compared with those obtained by the safety factor method and the Monte Carlo method Conducted a comparative analysis. The results show that compared with the safety factor method, the probability rating method based on yield proximity can provide a more accurate basis for the determination of probability level, and can also provide a basis for formulating concrete slope instability control measures, Compared with Carlo analysis, it has the characteristics of short time-consuming and high efficiency. This study provides a new perspective for the analysis of similar projects and has certain reference value.