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许多迹象表明全球将陷入新的经济衰退期。哪些国家会经历明显衰退,哪些国家不会呢?近年来对财政负责的国家多半比不负责的国家财政状况要好,因为他们有更好的安全保证。从三项财政指标可以看出各主要经济体的财政状况。第一个指标是2013年的经济增长率与赤字率之差。大多数主要经济体该值为负,表明赤字率大于经济增长率。其他两个指标分别是政府支出占GDP比重、政府总债务占GDP比重。政府支出较少的国家经济增速较高,反之亦然。政府债务占GDP超过90%的国家往往经济增长缓慢。这是因为政府债务对私人资本的挤出和高到可能失控的利息
There are many signs that the world will fall into a new recession. Which countries will experience a clear recession and which countries will not? In recent years, most of the countries that are responsible for finance have done better than the non-responsible countries because they have better security guarantees. The financial status of each major economy can be seen from the three financial indicators. The first indicator is the difference between the economic growth rate and the deficit rate in 2013. The value of most major economies is negative, indicating that the rate of deficit is greater than the rate of economic growth. The other two indicators are the proportion of government expenditure in GDP, the total government debt to GDP ratio. Countries with less government spending have higher economic growth and vice versa. Countries with government debt exceeding 90% of GDP tend to have slow economic growth. This is due to the squeeze out of private debt by government debt and the high interest rates that may be out of control