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基于代表性家庭最优消费决策及其与财政政策的关系,估计中国财政政策对城乡居民边际消费倾向的影响,结果表明,自1998年至今,城乡居民边际消费倾向的下降幅度超过20%。城乡居民边际消费倾向下降,除源于收入分配、经济发展程度、预期、消费结构等因素的影响外,与财政政策运用也有很大关系。其中,未预期到的财政政策冲击对居民边际消费倾向产生的综合效应显著为负。以未预期到的税收增加为融资工具的策略选择,大大抑制了结构调整的正面效应。因此,扩大居民消费,不仅要通过财政增收,提高居民消费能力,而且要通过调整财政收支策略,稳定居民消费预期,提升居民边际消费倾向。
Based on the representative household optimal consumption decision-making and its relationship with the fiscal policy, we estimate the impact of China’s fiscal policy on the marginal propensity to consume of urban and rural residents. The results show that the marginal propensity to consume among urban and rural residents has dropped by more than 20% since 1998. The declining marginal propensity to consume of urban and rural residents, apart from the impact of factors such as income distribution, economic development, expectation and consumption structure, is also closely related to the application of fiscal policy. Among them, the unanticipated impact of fiscal policy on residents’ marginal propensity to consume has a significantly negative overall effect. The unexpected choice of strategies to increase the tax revenue as a financing instrument greatly inhibits the positive effects of structural adjustment. Therefore, to expand residents’ consumption, we must not only increase incomes through public finance, but also improve residents’ spending power. We should also stabilize consumer expectations and adjust residents’ marginal propensity to consume by adjusting fiscal revenue and expenditure strategies.