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江苏省溧阳地区1979年7月9日发生Ms 6.0级地震,震前有多种前兆变化;后于1981年3月及1982年3月相继发生了Ms 3.3及3.6级地震,距震中很近的溧阳台钻孔应力仪也记录到了明显的前兆异常。但溧阳台于1983年3月又记录到一次明显的异常,却无地震与其对应。这就出现了如何判别近区(数十公里范围内)有震异常与无震异常的问题。根据前兆实测资料,笔者拟对这个地震预报探索中不可回避的问题作一粗略探讨。
Ms 6.0 earthquake occurred on July 9, 1979 in Liyang area of Jiangsu Province. There were many precursor changes before the earthquake; Ms 3.3 and Ms 3.6 earthquakes occurred in March 1981 and March 1982 respectively, which were close to the epicenter Liyang station borehole stress gauge also recorded a clear precursor anomalies. However, Liyang Terrace again recorded an obvious anomaly in March 1983, but no earthquake corresponded with it. This has led to the question of how to distinguish between anomalous and anomalous earthquakes in the vicinity (within a few tens of kilometers). According to the measured data of precursors, I would like to make a rough discussion on the unavoidable problems in this earthquake prediction exploration.