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为了解气候变化对亚热带地区森林植被的影响,以及森林植被对气候变化的响应,本研究利用ISSR分子标记技术,对种源地和栽培地的壳菜果种群进行遗传多样性研究,并对栽培地气象因子进行分析。通过PopGen32软件包分析表明,栽培地种群(湖南新宁种群和湖南株洲种群)和种源地种群(广西凭祥种群)之间的遗传多样性无明显变化,这与湖南株洲引种壳菜果种群发生在气候变暖时期,各气候因子已不再是壳菜果种群生长的限制因子有很大关系。通过RegCM3气候模型对2042年气候进行模拟,年平均温度比2010年升高了1℃,1月平均温度升温明显,7月平均温度在南岭以南变化不大,以北地区升温明显,年降水量变化不明显;至2042年壳菜果天然种群可能分布至25°N左右,25°N以北有零星分布,但数量很少,沿海地区进一步向北延伸,达到26°N左右。
In order to understand the impact of climate change on forest vegetation in subtropical regions and the response of forest vegetation to climate change, this study used ISSR molecular marker technology to study the genetic diversity of shell fruit populations in provenances and cultivated areas. The weather factor analysis. Analysis of the PopGen32 software package showed no significant changes in the genetic diversity among cultivated populations (Hunan Xinning population and Zhuzhou population in Hunan province) and provenances (Pingxiang population in Guangxi province) Occurred in the climate warming period, the climatic factors are no longer a limiting factor for the growth of shell fruit populations have a great relationship. Through the climate model of RegCM3, the climate of 2042 was simulated. The annual average temperature was 1 ℃ higher than that of 2010, and the average temperature in January was obviously increased. The average temperature in July changed little in the south of Nanling, obviously in the north, The change of precipitation is not obvious. By 2042, the natural population of crustaceans may be distributed around 25 ° N with sporadic distribution to the north of 25 ° N, but the number is small, and the coastal areas further extend northward to about 26 ° N.