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门限自回归模型是一种新近创立的非线性时间序列摸型。本文将其引入水文地质学领域,并利用山西龙子祠泉流量以及泉域降水量序列资料,建立描述泉流量动态的门限自回归线模型。结果表明,所建模型能用于泉流量动态的长期预报工作,对龙子祠泉的合理开发利用具有一定的实用价值;门限自回归模型能较真实地刻划复杂的泉流量动态,可推广应用于类似的时间序列建模中。
Threshold auto-regression model is a newly established nonlinear time series model. This article introduces it into the field of hydrogeology and establishes the threshold autoregressive model that describes the dynamic state of spring flow based on the spring flow of Longzi Temple in Shanxi Province and the precipitation series in the spring area. The results show that the proposed model can be used for the long-term prediction of spring flow dynamics and has certain practical value for the rational development and utilization of the Longzixi Spring. The threshold autoregressive model can more accurately describe the complex spring flow dynamics, Used in similar time series modeling.