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当前对于政府债务的经济增长效应研究基本上忽视了空间关联性这一因素,尤其是以中国省份或县市为样本的研究,不考虑地区经济增长和地方政府债务在空间上的关联性,可能会使其相关结论出现偏差。通过搜集整理中国30个省份的地方债务数据,并基于空间计量模型对地方政府债务的经济增长效应进行了实证分析。结果表明,考虑到经济增长的空间关联性之后,中国地方政府债务对于经济增长仍是具有促进作用的,但是其空间溢出效应不明显,这一基本结论也为中国地方债务相关政策的制定提供了一定的启示。
At present, the research on the economic growth effect of government debt basically neglects the factor of spatial relevance, especially the study of China’s provinces or counties, regardless of the spatial correlation between regional economic growth and local government debt, Will make its relevant conclusions deviation. By collecting and analyzing the local debt data of 30 provinces in China, the author empirically analyzes the economic growth effects of local government debt based on the spatial econometric model. The results show that after considering the spatial correlation of economic growth, the local government debt in China still has a positive effect on economic growth, but its spatial spillover effects are not obvious. This basic conclusion also provides a reference for the formulation of local debt-related policies in China A certain revelation.