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针对一次性投资决策理论与方法在石油勘探项目分阶段投资决策中应用的局限性,运用实物期权中的序列投资决策理论与方法,假设勘探储量转让价格服从跳跃扩散过程,构建了石油勘探项目分阶段投资的最优时机选择模型,逆序求解得出各阶段最优投资时机临界值的解析表达式,在此基础上通过案例演算对比分析了一次性投资和分阶段投资的最优时机决策规则.研究结果表明:一次性投资下的最优时机临界值高于分阶段投资下的最优时机临界值,且各阶段的最优投资时机临界值随勘探进程的不断深入呈现逐渐下降的趋势.
Aimed at the limitations of one-off investment decision-making theory and method in the investment decision-making of oil exploration projects in stages, the theory and method of sequence investment decision in real options are used. Assuming that the transfer price of exploration reserves obeys the leapfrogging process, an oil exploration project Based on the case analysis, the optimal timing decision rules of one-time investment and phase-in investment are compared and analyzed. The results show that the optimal threshold under one-time investment is higher than the optimal threshold under stage-by-stage investment, and the critical time for optimal investment in each stage shows a gradual downward trend with the deepening of the exploration process.