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未来5年镍存在过剩供给,供给增速大于需求增速。供给大于需求时,镍价与成本高度相关。当前镍价低于成本线,镍价有望回升。投资因素悄然变化,抄底机会形成。风险提示:美元持续走强导致镍价低迷;国内镍需求放缓。镍供给过剩1.预计2012-2015年镍供给过剩,2014年过剩达峰值价见底2012-2015年镍供给5%以上增速大于需求3.7%增速。据我们预测,每年供给过剩约10-20万吨,在2014年后稳定在约20万吨。国际机构CRU和Wood Mackenzie预测此期间每年供给过剩约6-13万吨,过剩峰值在2014年出现,价
Over the next five years there is excess nickel supply, supply growth is greater than demand growth. Nickel prices are highly cost-related when supply is greater than demand. The current price of nickel is below the cost line, and nickel prices are expected to pick up. Quiet changes in investment factors, the opportunity to form a bargain-hunting. Risk Warning: Continued strong US dollar led to the downturn in nickel prices; domestic demand for nickel slowed down. Excessive Nickel Supply 1. Excess supply of nickel is expected in 2012-2015, with peak in excess of 2014 peaked in 2012-2012 Nickel supply above 5% growth rate in 2012-2015 surpassed demand growth of 3.7%. According to our forecasts, there will be an annual surplus of about 100,000 to 200,000 tons and will stabilize at about 200,000 tons after 2014. International agencies CRU and Wood Mackenzie forecast an excess of 60-130 kilotons of excess supply during the period, with an excess peak in 2014